The Next Generation

As posted in my previous hub, The Graphics Bell Curve, I have some doubts about the coming generation of video game consoles. If new game consoles are to be released within the next year, the technology simply won’t be advanced enough over the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 to make a real difference.

While Nintendo seems poised to release a new console in 2012, both Sony and Microsoft seem to be waiting an additional year for their respective new hardware. What does this mean for my graphics bell curve? Unfortunately, it doesn’t mean much.

Nintendo gets a pass to upgrade because of the technical inferiority of the Wii, their current flagship hardware, but even two more years may not provide a super significant technological leap over the PS3 and Xbox 360, at least not to the level consumers will expect.

To top it off, there are other problems with more advanced hardware. The biggest problem comes with development time. Modern games can have budgets of tens of millions of dollars, a hundred or more development team members, and take years to complete. A move to more powerful hardware will drive these numbers even higher. At these rates, the consoles themselves may drive their software market out of business. Competing in the video games market will just be too costly.

It looks grim; doesn’t it? However, all hope is not lost. I feel like there are some steps that Sony and Microsoft can take to make the video game market more habitable for developers. Unfortunately, that means making some compromises in their next generation hardware. They need to take a page from the Nintendo playbook.

The Nintendo Wii was a superior piece of hardware compared to its predecessor, the Gamecube. Yet, its superiority is limited. In terms of computational performance, the Wii was less than 50% greater than the Gamecube. Considering there was a five year difference between them, this difference is miniscule. The Wii did add changes, such as its motion control and more advanced operating system, but in terms of graphics, you would be hard pressed to notice a difference between the two systems.

This basic concept is what Sony and Microsoft should adopt. Sony’s PS3, in particular, is infamous for being an awkward system to develop for. With this new generation Sony has the option to release a somewhat more developer friendly system, while at the same time keeping the cost down for hardware and development. I am not suggesting a complete reengineering of their hardware. I am suggesting a refinement of it.They do, however need to improve their hardware more than Nintendo did with the Wii.

What will be gained by this? The gains will be numerous. Developer experience into the specific intricacies of the current hardware will carry over to the new generation. This cuts development time as programmers will not have to learn new hardware. Game Engines that work on the previous hardware will require little to no modification to work on the new hardware, cutting costs. Strategic enhancement of the hardware can eliminate performance bottlenecks in the hardware, making game development easier. Finally, the actual cost of the system will be lower, making it more widely available to consumers.

The future of video games may be ahead of us, but it could resemble what has already passed. With the 2011 Electronic Entertainment Expo right around the corner, the subject of my predictions may come true, or be proved false. In a future hub I will go into the down and dirty detail with what should be done with the hardware.